Street Economics

Miami-Dade, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Miami-Dade County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Miami-Dade read

Miami-Dade County carries the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype, which describes a base built primarily on owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property. In the purest form of this archetype, almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts, and stripping the homesteads leaves little taxable base behind. Miami-Dade, however, lands in the Low exposure band: HJR 1 exposure at the full $250,000 phase-in in 2028 is 13.2%, and at the $150,000 step in 2027 it is 7.9%. The archetype label reflects the residential-heavy composition of the roll, but the exposure number is held down by the county’s large non-homestead base, which provides meaningful insulation.

The ownership split tells the story clearly. Of 1,069,053 residential housing units, 43.0% are owner-occupied, 9.4% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 47.6% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 47.6% Florida-owned non-homestead share is the structural reason exposure is low: a large portion of the county’s residential units are rentals or second homes held by Florida-based owners, and those units carry no homestead exemption. High homestead share plus low commercial share is the combination that drives maximum exposure; Miami-Dade’s relatively modest homestead share and its substantial Florida-owned rental market break that pattern.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Miami-Dade, 2025 roll:

Residential value dominates at 64.1%, but the combined non-residential and non-homestead categories provide a meaningful counterweight. Commercial at 11.4% and Industrial at 6.3% together represent nearly 1 in 5 dollars of assessed value, and Multifamily at 7.8% adds further non-homestead base. The 3.8% Other/Vacant share is not large enough to signal a major redevelopment pipeline on its own, but it represents real land that could be directed toward taxable uses.

What the exposure band means

Band: Low exposure The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how the county grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the primary mechanism for growing taxable value in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity in the commercial, industrial, and small-rental segments matters more to base growth under the new cap than it did under the old one.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately, reaching the full amount only in year five. This ramp cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in areas of the county with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Recruit and zone for a commercial and employment spine. At 11.4% of total value, commercial is present but not dominant. The single highest-leverage move is converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage that carries no homestead exemption. Target neighborhood-serving retail nodes, small office or medical-office clusters, or light-flex business parks on existing arterials across the county’s many municipalities and unincorporated areas.
• Capture multifamily rental as taxable base. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment. At 7.8% of total value, multifamily is a meaningful contributor but has room to grow. Allowing well-sited rental near jobs and transit adds non-homestead value and workforce housing at the same time, and Miami-Dade’s large Florida-owned rental market shows this is already a functioning part of the local economy.
• Concentrate commercial and rental growth along existing arterials and corridors rather than scattering it. A real non-homestead spine in one place is more durable than thin commercial spread across many locations. Direct new commercial square footage and well-sited rental to corridors where infrastructure already exists.
• Prioritize commercial and industrial parcels for future growth rather than more subdivisions. Any expansion of the county’s footprint that adds industrial or commercial square footage deepens the non-homestead base; any expansion that adds single-family subdivisions deepens the monoculture the amendment targets.
• Protect and intensify existing employment anchors. Hospitals, colleges, distribution facilities, and government-adjacent private uses are the non-homestead taxpayers already in place. These are the assets that hold the base together and should be the first priority for retention and expansion.

Watch-out: Do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. That is the trap that created the exposure profile in the first place, and Miami-Dade’s relatively healthy exposure number is worth protecting by not repeating it.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected by the larger exemption is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at the full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are of residential housing units, not parcels. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida-owned, and it does not prove where any individual owner actually lives. Blank owner-state is treated as unknown, not out-of-state.

This read is a land-use-composition starting point. It is not a comprehensive fiscal, economic, or legal analysis, and it is not a substitute for a full plan developed with local planners, legal counsel, and current budget data.

Place: Miami-dade