Street Economics

Longwood, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Seminole County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Longwood read

Longwood fits the Residential Commuter archetype: residential-dominant like a classic bedroom community, but with a larger renter or out-of-state share and a lower homestead rate than a pure owner-occupied suburb, leaving it somewhat less concentrated in owner-occupied primary residence. Still, the commercial base is thin. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, Longwood’s exposure sits at 24.4%, with a 16.3% hit at the 2027 $150,000 step. Exposure is high but slightly buffered by the non-homestead residential share — renters and second homes — that continues paying at full taxable value even after the amendment takes effect.

Of 8,138 residential housing units, 52.5% are owner-occupied, 15.9% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 31.4% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 31.4% Florida-owned non-homestead share is a meaningful structural cushion: these are local landlords and in-state second-home owners whose properties the amendment does not touch. Among Florida cities, Longwood ranks 178 of 404 by exposure — solidly in the middle of the pack, consistent with its moderate-exposure band.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Longwood, 2025 roll:

Two figures in this table stand out. Multifamily carries 54.3% of its value in out-of-state ownership despite representing only 10.3% of its parcels — a signal that larger apartment assets in Longwood are disproportionately held by outside investors. Industrial similarly shows 40.5% of its value out-of-state owned. Both categories are fully taxable under the amendment, so the ownership pattern is a fiscal observation, not a fiscal problem, but it is worth noting for any conversation about who controls the non-homestead base.

What the exposure band means

Moderate exposure. A meaningful but absorbable hit. The place has some non-homestead base to lean on. Mitigation is about steering future growth, not emergency response.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Longwood grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main engine of base growth in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth under the new cap than it did under the old one.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This residency ramp cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the uses described, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Building a stronger commercial and services base is the clearest lever available. Residents already spend and work elsewhere; capturing some of that daytime economy locally converts bedroom function into taxable commercial value that the amendment does not touch. The most efficient path is concentrating commercial and rental investment on one corridor or node where infrastructure and demand already exist, rather than scattering it across the city.
• Zoning for more multifamily and missing-middle rental — both fully taxable — deepens the non-homestead cushion that is already providing some insulation. The 54.3% out-of-state ownership share of multifamily value is a reminder that this category attracts outside capital; the fiscal benefit accrues to Longwood regardless of where the owner’s mailing address is.
• Courting employers who want a workforce-adjacent location adds non-homestead commercial and industrial base while serving the people already living here.
• Industrial at 13.8% of taxable value is a real asset; protecting and expanding that footprint on appropriate sites keeps a category that is both fully taxable and already significant.

Watch-out: resist the instinct to chase only owner-occupied move-up housing for its image. It is the most exposed category under HJR 1. Mixed-tenure growth — rental, commercial, and industrial alongside owner-occupied residential — is structurally more resilient.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for Longwood’s tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure (15.9%) identifies units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the assessment roll is a non-Florida state or country; blank owner-state is treated as unknown, not out-of-state. This measure undercounts true outside ownership — an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida — and does not prove where any owner actually lives. It is the cleanest proxy available from the roll, not a definitive residency determination.

This read is a land-use-composition starting point. It is not a comprehensive fiscal, economic, or legal analysis, and it is not a substitute for a full planning or budget assessment.

Place: Longwood, FL