Street Economics

Hillsborough County, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Hillsborough County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Hillsborough County read

Hillsborough County fits the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype. The base is owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property. This is the maximum-exposure profile: almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts. Strip the homesteads and little taxable base remains.

At full phase-in in 2028, 25.6% of Hillsborough County’s non-school taxable base is exposed to the HJR 1 homestead exemption increase. The 2027 step lands at 15.6%. The driver is straightforward: a high homestead share combined with a low commercial share means the exemption lands on nearly the whole base at once.

Of 599,698 residential housing units, 52.0% are owner-occupied, 20.9% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 27.1% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. The Florida-owned non-homestead share — at 27.1% — is the larger of the two non-homestead segments, pointing to a substantial local landlord and in-state second-home market rather than a predominantly absentee ownership picture.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Hillsborough County, 2025 roll:

Residential property alone accounts for nearly two-thirds of the county’s just value, and the combined residential and multifamily share reaches 71.9%. Commercial and industrial together represent only 15.3% of the base. That concentration is the structural source of the county’s exposure.

What the exposure band means

Moderate exposure. A meaningful but absorbable hit. The place has some non-homestead base to lean on. Mitigation is about steering future growth, not emergency response.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how the county grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because capped values can rise only 5% per year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets assessed value to market, so transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in areas of the county with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the uses described, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Commercial square footage is the single highest-leverage move available to Hillsborough County. At 10.6% of just value, the commercial base is thin relative to the residential monoculture. The most direct path to deepening non-homestead base is converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage that carries no homestead exemption. Neighborhood-serving retail nodes, small office or medical-office clusters, and light-flex business parks along existing arterials are the right targets. Each square foot of commercial space added is base the amendment does not touch.
• Multifamily rental is the second lever. At 8.5% of just value, the apartment and rental base is present but not dominant. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment. Allowing well-sited rental development near jobs and transit adds non-homestead value and addresses workforce housing demand at the same time. Given that 27.1% of residential units are already Florida-owned non-homestead, the county has a functioning local rental market to build on.
• Concentrate commercial and rental growth along existing arterials and corridors rather than scattering it. A real non-homestead spine in one place is more durable than thin commercial uses spread across the county. Direct new commercial square footage and well-sited rental to those corridors so the base thickens where infrastructure already exists.
• Prioritize commercial and industrial parcels for future growth rather than more residential subdivisions. Any expansion of the county’s developed footprint should deepen the non-homestead base rather than extend the monoculture. Industrial and flex uses in particular carry no homestead exposure and generate employment-base value.
• Protect and intensify any existing employment anchors — hospitals, colleges, distribution facilities, government offices. These are the non-homestead taxpayers already in place and already outside the amendment’s reach. Losing one is harder to replace than adding a new one.

Watch-out: do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. That is the trap that created the exposure, and more of the same deepens it.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll actually affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts residential units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the assessment roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because out-of-state owners using in-state mailing addresses or in-state LLCs count as Florida-owned. It does not prove where an owner lives. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Hillsborough