Street Economics

Miami, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Miami-Dade County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Miami read

Miami fits the Renter-Heavy archetype. A majority of the residential housing is not owner-occupied: 55% or more of units are rentals or second homes, and most of that non-owner stock is held by Floridians — in-state landlords and second-home owners — making this a local-ownership rental market rather than an absentee one. Owner-occupancy is a minority of the housing. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, HJR 1 exposure sits at 6.6%, with the 2027 step landing at 3.9%. Exposure runs lower than a homeowner town because the amendment only helps homestead owners and most units here are non-homestead; the insulation is real, but it reflects a community where most residents rent rather than own.

Of 204,863 residential housing units, 24.7% are owner-occupied, 10.1% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 65.2% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. Among ranked Florida cities, Miami ranks 375 of 404 cities by exposure, placing it near the very bottom of the exposure distribution statewide.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Miami, 2025 roll:

What the exposure band means

Band: Very low exposure. The amendment barely registers. Usually because the base is owned by out-of-state owners or commercially deep. The risk here is not the amendment; it is whatever made exposure this low — often that residents do not own their own town.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how Miami grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial, industrial, and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because capped values can only rise 5% a year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value, so transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it all at once. This cannot be read from the roll, so the figures above assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that usually decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• With multifamily at 15.7% of taxable value and rental tenure already dominant, rental housing is the structural backbone of Miami’s non-homestead base. Deepening that base means treating well-managed, deed-restricted rental and missing-middle housing as a taxable-base asset: rental is non-homestead and already the dominant tenure, so adding rental units grows the base without displacing residents. The priority is quality and management, not just volume.
• Commercial at 18.0% of value is a meaningful share, but the city’s low homestead rate signals that residents largely do not own where they live, which is a housing-and-ownership condition, not a fiscal achievement. Growing commercial, light-industrial, and employment-generating value along existing corridors and the commercial core reduces the base’s dependence on rental housing and creates local economic anchors.
• Industrial at 2.8% of value is a smaller slice, but the out-of-state ownership share of industrial value (26.4%) suggests that category is already attracting outside capital; directing new light-industrial and employment uses to existing industrial corridors and arterial frontage can deepen that base further.
• Other/Vacant land represents 7.2% of taxable value across 6,858 parcels. That is a meaningful inventory of underutilized land. Directing mixed-use, commercial, and rental development to those parcels — particularly along active corridors — is the most direct way to convert idle land into taxable non-homestead base.
• Where resident stability and ownership are goals, any push toward owner-occupied housing should be paired with anti-displacement measures and treated as a community-values decision, not a tax-base strategy. New owner-occupied homestead housing is the one category the amendment exempts, so it does not strengthen the non-homestead base.

Watchout: Renter-heavy with mostly Florida landlords is a local rental market, not absentee ownership; do not describe it as outside-owned. High rental share at modest values still usually signals an affordability and local-wealth issue, not a tax-base achievement. The low exposure number is a structural fact about who owns Miami’s housing, and that fact deserves a direct conversation about ownership, affordability, and resident wealth-building — not just a note that the amendment’s fiscal impact is limited.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll (the $150,000 step), with full $250,000 phase-in on the 2028 roll. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership (an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC address counts as Florida) and does not prove where an owner actually lives. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Miami