Street Economics

Sebring, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Highlands County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Sebring read

Sebring carries the Balanced / Diversified archetype: a genuine mix of residential, commercial, and other uses with no single category overwhelming the base, which is the healthiest profile a Florida city can hold going into this amendment. At full phase-in in 2028, 17.2% of the city’s non-school taxable base is exposed, stepping through 12.6% at the 2027 threshold first.

The residential share takes a hit, as it does everywhere, but the commercial and rental base cushions the blow, which is exactly why the exposure number lands where it does. Sebring ranks 281 of 404 cities by exposure, placing it well toward the lower end of the statewide distribution.

Of 5,516 residential housing units, 41.0% are owner-occupied, 10.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 48.6% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 48.6% Florida-owned non-homestead share is the structural story here: Sebring’s rental market is predominantly a local-ownership rental market, not an absentee-ownership market, and that distinction matters for both fiscal resilience and community character. The large Florida-owned non-homestead share is a significant reason the exposure figure stays low.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Sebring, 2025 roll:

Two figures in the commercial column are worth noting. While commercial parcels represent 19.5% of total value, 30.4% of commercial value is out-of-state owned, a notably higher share than the parcel count alone (13.0%) would suggest. This means the larger commercial properties in Sebring skew toward out-of-state ownership, which is a common pattern in smaller Florida cities where national or regional retail and service operators hold the higher-value assets. Institutional value shows a similar gap: 2.6% of parcels but 22.5% of value out-of-state owned.

What the exposure band means

Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Sebring grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can only rise 5% per year, the main engine of base growth in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity in the commercial and rental inventory will matter more to Sebring’s non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in years where a meaningful share of Sebring’s homestead population is still inside that five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit any of these uses, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Sebring’s diversified base is its most valuable asset, and the first mitigation move is to protect it deliberately. The balance between residential, commercial, and rental uses is what keeps the exposure figure at 17.2% rather than 30% or higher, and that balance erodes quietly if every approval cycle tilts toward owner-occupied residential. Maintaining an explicit composition target, even informally, is the most important thing Sebring can do.
• The second move is to use the diversified base as an economic-development signal. A city that can absorb the amendment without a services crisis is a more attractive location for businesses and investors than one facing a 30%-plus revenue hole. That is a concrete recruiting advantage, and it should be named as one.
• The third move is to target the next increment of growth toward whichever non-homestead category is thinnest. Looking at the composition table, multifamily at 4.0% of value and industrial at 2.1% are the thinnest non-homestead categories. Adding density in either, particularly multifamily rental along existing corridors or on converting vacant land, broadens the diversified base rather than tilting it back toward residential.
• The fourth move is to steer commercial, rental, and industrial growth into the established commercial core and corridors, where new investment reinforces the existing non-homestead base rather than scattering it. Infill and densification along arterial frontage and in the downtown core are the locations most likely to produce taxable value in categories the amendment does not touch.

Watch-out: diversification erodes quietly if every approval is another subdivision. Keep an explicit composition target and revisit it each budget cycle.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for Sebring’s tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at the full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential housing-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida-owned, and it does not prove where any individual owner actually lives. It is the cleanest available stand-in for second-home and out-of-state investor ownership of housing, not a definitive residency determination.

This read is a land-use-composition starting point. It is not a comprehensive fiscal, economic, or legal analysis, and it is not a substitute for a full plan developed with local planners, legal counsel, and finance staff.

Place: Sebring, FL