Street Economics

Miami Gardens, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Miami-Dade County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Miami Gardens read

Miami Gardens fits the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype: the base is owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property. This is the maximum-exposure profile in structural terms, because almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, 25.6% of the city’s non-school taxable base is exposed, with a 17.6% hit at the 2027 $150,000 step. High homestead share plus low commercial share means the exemption lands on nearly the whole base at once.

Of 36,279 residential housing units, 56.7% are owner-occupied, 11.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 32.0% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 32.0% Florida-owned non-homestead share is a meaningful signal: a substantial portion of the rental market here is held by in-state landlords, not absentee out-of-state investors, which is a local-ownership rental market story rather than an absentee-ownership one. Miami Gardens ranks 155 of 404 cities statewide by HJR 1 exposure.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Miami Gardens, 2025 roll:

Two figures in this table stand out. Industrial parcels, while representing 13.0% of total value, show 36.2% of their value held by out-of-state owners, and multifamily parcels show 41.7% of their value out-of-state owned despite a modest parcel-level share of 5.5%. Commercial parcels show 27.2% of value out-of-state owned. These are parcel-based measures within each category and are separate from the unit-based ownership figures in the snapshot above.

What the exposure band means

Moderate exposure. A meaningful but absorbable hit. The place has some non-homestead base to lean on. Mitigation is about steering future growth, not emergency response.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how Miami Gardens grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main engine of base growth in these categories becomes transactions: a sale or change of control resets value to market, so transaction velocity in the commercial and industrial stock matters more to the non-homestead base than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This residency ramp cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit any of these uses, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• With commercial at 8.8% of total value, the single highest-leverage move for Miami Gardens is building a commercial and employment spine. Converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage is the most direct way to deepen the non-homestead base, because commercial property carries no homestead exemption. The target should be a neighborhood-serving retail node, a small office or medical-office cluster, or a light-flex business park positioned along an existing arterial where infrastructure already exists.
• Multifamily rental is the second major lever. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment, and the city’s 32.0% Florida-owned non-homestead unit share confirms there is already an active rental market here. Allowing well-sited rental development near jobs and transit adds non-homestead taxable value while also addressing workforce housing demand at the same time.
• Concentration matters as much as category. Rather than scattering new commercial and rental approvals across the city, directing them to a single existing corridor allows a real non-homestead spine to form in one place instead of staying thin everywhere. A corridor strategy also makes future infrastructure investment more efficient.
• The industrial base at 13.0% of value is already the second-largest non-homestead category in the city. Protecting and intensifying existing employment anchors, whether a distribution facility, a hospital, a college, or a government office complex, preserves the non-homestead taxpayers already in place and avoids the cost of replacing them later.
• Any expansion of the city’s footprint or any rezoning decision should prioritize commercial and industrial uses over additional single-family subdivisions, so growth deepens the non-homestead base rather than extending the monoculture.

Watch-out: do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. That is the structural trap that created the exposure in the first place, and more of the same deepens it.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state figure reflects units whose owner mailing address in the roll is a non-Florida state or country; blank owner-state is treated as unknown, not out-of-state. This is a mailing-address proxy that undercounts true outside ownership and does not prove where an owner actually lives. This read is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Miami Gardens