Street Economics

Clearwater, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Pinellas County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Clearwater read

Clearwater carries the Balanced / Diversified archetype: a genuine mix of residential, commercial, and other uses with no single category overwhelming the base, which is the healthiest profile a Florida city can hold going into this amendment. At full phase-in in 2028, HJR 1 exposure sits at 17.8% of the non-school taxable base, with a 11.5% step at the 2027 threshold. Moderate exposure is the right read here: the residential share takes a hit from the larger homestead exemption, but the commercial and rental base cushions the blow. Clearwater ranks 274 of 404 cities by exposure statewide, meaning the vast majority of Florida cities face more pressure than Clearwater does.

Of 66,741 residential housing units, 45.2% are owner-occupied, 23.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 31.6% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 31.6% Florida-owned non-homestead share is a meaningful structural buffer: it represents local landlords and in-state investors whose properties are not touched by the homestead exemption expansion. The out-of-state ownership figure at 23.3% is below the threshold that triggers a high-ownership flag, but it is not trivial and is worth watching as a housing-affordability signal alongside the fiscal read.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Clearwater, 2025 roll:

Two figures in this table are worth pausing on. Commercial property is 13.3% of total value, but 38.2% of commercial value is held by out-of-state owners, a notably higher share than the parcel count of 26.7% would suggest — meaning out-of-state owners tend to hold the larger commercial assets. Multifamily tells a similar story: 15.7% of multifamily parcels are out-of-state owned, but those parcels account for 42.0% of multifamily value, pointing to concentration of larger rental properties in outside hands.

What the exposure band means

Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Clearwater grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can only rise 5% per year, the primary engine of base growth in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity in the commercial and rental sectors matters more to Clearwater’s non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with a meaningful share of recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the uses described, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Clearwater’s diversification is its primary asset, and the first priority is maintaining it deliberately.
• The balance between residential, commercial, and rental uses is what keeps the exposure figure at 17.8% rather than the 30%-plus figures seen in more residential-heavy cities; that balance does not maintain itself.
• The thinnest non-homestead category by value share is industrial at 1.3%, and that is where the next increment of growth could do the most to broaden the base.
• Industrial and flex-commercial uses along established arterial corridors and in areas already showing commercial activity are the natural target: they add taxable value in a category the amendment does not touch, and they do not compete with the residential fabric that makes Clearwater function as a community.
• The multifamily share at 9.0% of total value is meaningful but not dominant, and the out-of-state ownership concentration within that category (42.0% of multifamily value) is a signal worth tracking.
• Growing the multifamily rental base through additional units in the established commercial core and along transit-accessible corridors deepens the non-homestead cushion while keeping that growth in locations where it reinforces rather than displaces the diversified base.
• Clearwater’s diversified profile is itself an economic-development asset. A city that can absorb a major homestead-exemption expansion without a services crisis is a more predictable operating environment for businesses evaluating Florida locations. That story is worth telling explicitly in business-attraction conversations.

Watch-out: diversification erodes quietly if every approval is another subdivision. An explicit composition target — tracking the share of new taxable value coming from commercial, rental, and industrial uses versus owner-occupied residential — is the discipline that keeps the cushion intact over time.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 exemption step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis: each homestead-eligible parcel counts as one unit and each multifamily parcel counts by its number of apartment units. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy — it identifies owners whose address on the roll shows a non-Florida state or country — and it undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state mailing address or LLC will appear as Florida-owned. It does not prove where an owner lives; it is the cleanest available signal in the roll. This read is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Clearwater