Street Economics
Hollywood, Florida
HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure
Snapshot
| HJR 1 exposure at full $250,000 phase-in (2028) | 16.9% |
| Exposure at the $150,000 step (2027) | 10.2% |
| Exposure band | Low exposure |
| Total parcels | 62,784 |
| Total residential housing units | 71,475 |
| Owner-occupied (homestead) units | 44.6% |
| Out-of-state owned units | 12.3% |
| Florida-owned non-homestead units | 43.1% |
| Archetype | Bedroom Residential Monoculture |
The Hollywood read
Hollywood carries the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype, which describes a base built predominantly on owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property. That profile is the maximum-exposure archetype in theory: almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts, and stripping the homesteads leaves little taxable base behind. Yet Hollywood’s headline exposure at full $250,000 phase-in lands at 16.9%, with a 10.2% step at the $150,000 threshold in 2027, placing it in the Low exposure band. The reason the number is lower than the archetype’s worst case is that 43.1% of residential units are non-homestead but Florida-owned, meaning a large share of the housing stock is rental or second-home property that the amendment does not touch.
Of 71,475 residential housing units, 44.6% are owner-occupied, 12.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 43.1% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That Florida-owned rental share is the structural insulation that keeps exposure manageable. Hollywood ranks 286 of 404 cities by exposure statewide, meaning it sits in the lower-exposure tier relative to its peers.
Land-use composition
Share of taxable value by category, Hollywood, 2025 roll:
| Land-use category | Share of value | % of parcels out-of-state | % of value out-of-state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | 65.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% |
| Commercial | 11.8% | 9.9% | 37.5% |
| Multifamily | 8.0% | 7.6% | 19.3% |
| Govt/Public | 7.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Industrial | 4.3% | 10.4% | 40.5% |
| Institutional | 1.5% | 8.9% | 23.9% |
| Other/Vacant | 1.4% | 4.9% | 14.4% |
| Agricultural | 0.0% | 35.7% | 0.7% |
Residential dominates at 65.9% of just value across 52,861 parcels, confirming the monoculture diagnosis. Commercial at 11.8% and Multifamily at 8.0% are the two meaningful non-homestead anchors. Industrial at 4.3% is thin but present. The out-of-state ownership figures within Commercial (37.5% of value) and Industrial (40.5% of value) are notably high relative to their parcel counts, signaling that outside investors hold a disproportionate share of the dollar value in those categories even though they own a modest share of the parcels.
What the exposure band means
Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.
Looking ahead
Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Hollywood grows its base after the amendment takes effect.
First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial, industrial, and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because capped values can rise only 5% per year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value, so transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.
Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it all at once. This cannot be read from the roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.
Where the opportunity is
These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.
- Recruit and zone for a commercial and employment spine. Converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage is the single highest-leverage move available. A neighborhood-serving retail node, a small office or medical-office cluster, or a light-flex business park on an arterial adds non-homestead value that carries no homestead exemption. Hollywood’s existing arterial network is the logical location to concentrate this growth so a real non-homestead spine forms in one place rather than staying thin everywhere.
- Capture multifamily rental as taxable base. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment. At 8.0% of just value across 3,041 parcels, multifamily is already a meaningful contributor, but there is room to deepen it. Allowing well-sited rental near jobs and transit adds non-homestead value and workforce housing simultaneously. The 43.1% Florida-owned non-homestead unit share confirms that a local rental market already exists and can be built upon.
- Protect and intensify existing employment anchors. Any hospital, college, distribution facility, or government-adjacent private employer already in place is a non-homestead taxpayer. These anchors are the hardest to replace and the easiest to lose to a neighboring jurisdiction. Protecting and intensifying them is lower-risk than recruiting from scratch.
- Prioritize commercial and industrial parcels for future municipal growth rather than more subdivisions. Any expansion of the city’s footprint that adds commercial or industrial square footage deepens the non-homestead base. Each new single-family subdivision does the opposite.
Watch-out: do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. That is the trap that created the monoculture exposure in the first place, and it compounds over time.
Source and scope
All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for Hollywood’s tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.
Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. Out-of-state ownership is a mailing-address proxy: it identifies units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state mailing address or LLC counts as Florida-owned. It does not prove where an owner lives. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal plan.
Place: Hollywood, Florida
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