Street Economics

Key Biscayne, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Miami-Dade County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Key Biscayne read

Key Biscayne carries the Renter-Heavy archetype. A majority of the residential housing is not owner-occupied: 55% or more of units are rentals or second homes. Most of the non-owner stock is owned by Floridians — in-state landlords and second-home owners — so this is a local-ownership rental market rather than an absentee one. Owner-occupancy is a minority of the housing.

At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, HJR 1 exposure sits at 4.8%, and at the 2027 $150,000 step it is 2.4%. Exposure runs lower than a homeowner town because the amendment only helps homestead owners and most units here are non-homestead. The insulation is real, but it reflects a community where most residents rent rather than own. Key Biscayne ranks 385 of 404 cities by exposure statewide — meaning it is among the least exposed cities in Florida.

Of 6,918 residential housing units, 39.5% are owner-occupied, 6.8% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 53.7% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. The out-of-state share is not elevated here; the dominant story is Florida-owned rental, not absentee outside ownership.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Key Biscayne, 2025 roll:

Agricultural parcels are present in the roll but carry no assessed value and are omitted from this table.

What the exposure band means

Band: Very low exposure. The amendment barely registers. Usually because the base is owned by out-of-state owners or commercially deep. The risk here is not the amendment; it is whatever made exposure this low — often that residents do not own their own town.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how Key Biscayne grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial, industrial, and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because capped values can only rise 5% a year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value, so transaction velocity matters more to base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it all at once. This cannot be read from the roll, so the figures above assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that usually decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Commercial value is the single biggest lever here. At 3.1% of total just value, the commercial base is thin for a place of this size and market depth. Concentrating new commercial activity along existing corridors and the commercial core — retail, dining, professional services, and mixed-use ground-floor uses — is the most direct way to deepen non-homestead taxable value in a category the amendment does not touch.
• The low exposure figure should be read as a housing-and-ownership signal, not a fiscal win. More than half of Key Biscayne’s residents rent rather than own, and the base rests mainly on rental housing. Growing commercial, light-employment, and mixed-use value reduces that dependence and builds a more durable fiscal foundation.
• Rental housing is already the dominant tenure and is non-homestead, so well-managed rental and missing-middle housing adds taxable base without displacing residents. Supporting deed-restricted and professionally managed rental development — directed to appropriate sites within the existing built fabric — reinforces the base in a category the amendment leaves untouched.
• Where resident stability and ownership are community goals, any push toward owner-occupied housing should be paired with anti-displacement measures and understood as a community-values decision, not a tax-base move. New owner-occupied homestead housing is the one category the amendment exempts, so it does not strengthen the fiscal base.

Watch-out: Renter-heavy with mostly Florida landlords is a local rental market, not absentee ownership — do not describe it as outside-owned. A high rental share at modest values still usually signals an affordability and local-wealth issue, not a tax-base achievement.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it identifies owners whose address on the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership — an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida — and it does not prove where an owner actually lives. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal plan.