Street Economics

Miami Shores, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Miami-Dade County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Miami Shores read

Miami Shores fits the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype. The base is owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property — this is the maximum-exposure profile, because almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, 23.5% of the city’s non-school taxable base is exposed; the 2027 step at $150,000 lands at 13.0%. High homestead share plus low commercial share means the exemption lands on nearly the whole base at once, which is what drives both figures.

Of 3,889 residential housing units, 75.9% are owner-occupied, 1.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 22.9% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That Florida-owned non-homestead share — local landlords and in-state second-home owners — is the city’s most meaningful buffer in the residential category, but it is not large enough on its own to offset the homestead concentration. Among ranked Florida cities, Miami Shores sits at 191 of 404 by exposure, placing it in the middle of the statewide distribution.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Miami Shores, 2025 roll:

Residential dominates at 88.3% of total just value across 3,664 parcels, leaving commercial at only 3.6% and multifamily at 2.1%. The out-of-state ownership signal in the commercial category is the most notable in the table: 11.3% of commercial parcels and 14.3% of commercial value are held by out-of-state owners, a pattern worth watching as the city considers how to steward that corridor. Institutional and government parcels carry no out-of-state ownership by parcel count or value.

What the exposure band means

Moderate exposure. A meaningful but absorbable hit. The place has some non-homestead base to lean on. Mitigation is about steering future growth, not emergency response.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how Miami Shores grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main engine of base growth in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity in the commercial and rental segments matters more to the non-homestead base than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit any of these uses, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• With commercial at only 3.6% of total value, the single highest-leverage move for Miami Shores is building a commercial and employment spine. Converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage — a neighborhood-serving retail node, a small office or medical-office cluster, or a light-flex business park on an arterial — is the most direct way to deepen the non-homestead base. Commercial property carries no homestead exemption and is the category the amendment does not touch.
• Multifamily rental is the second lever. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment, and at 2.1% of total value, the rental base is thin. Allowing well-sited rental near jobs and transit adds non-homestead value and workforce housing at the same time, and the 22.9% Florida-owned non-homestead residential share signals that local landlord activity already exists as a foundation to build on.
• Any commercial and rental growth should be concentrated along an existing arterial or corridor rather than scattered across the city. A real non-homestead spine in one location is more durable than thin additions spread everywhere. Direct new commercial square footage and well-sited rental to that corridor so the base compounds in one place.
• The city should also prioritize commercial and industrial parcels for any future municipal growth rather than approving more subdivisions. Each new single-family subdivision adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. Finally, any existing employment anchor — a hospital, college, distribution facility, or government office — should be protected and, where possible, intensified. These are the non-homestead taxpayers already in place and the hardest to replace.

Watch-out: do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. That is the trap that created the exposure.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership — an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC address counts as Florida — and it does not prove where an owner actually lives. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Miami Shores