Street Economics

Palm Springs, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Palm Beach County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Palm Springs read

Palm Springs fits the Balanced / Diversified archetype: a genuine mix of residential, commercial, and other uses with no single category overwhelming the base, which is the healthiest profile a Florida city can carry into this amendment. At full phase-in in 2028, HJR 1 removes 19.3% of the city’s non-school taxable base, stepping through 13.1% in 2027. The residential share takes a hit, but the commercial and rental base cushions it, which is exactly what a diversified composition is supposed to do. Palm Springs ranks 254 of 404 Florida cities by exposure, placing it in the lower-middle tier of the statewide distribution.

Of 8,793 residential housing units, 42.5% are owner-occupied, 20.6% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 36.8% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 36.8% Florida-owned non-homestead share is a meaningful structural buffer: it represents local and in-state landlords whose properties the amendment does not touch, and it is the largest single ownership segment in the city’s housing stock.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Palm Springs, 2025 roll:

One figure in this table warrants attention. Multifamily carries 11.9% of the city’s total value, but 47.7% of that multifamily value is owned by out-of-state owners, even though only 7.5% of multifamily parcels are out-of-state owned. That gap between parcel share and value share signals that the out-of-state-owned multifamily properties are, on average, substantially larger or higher-value than the Florida-owned ones. Commercial shows a similar pattern: 16.3% of commercial parcels are out-of-state owned, but those parcels account for 33.0% of commercial value.

What the exposure band means

Moderate exposure. A meaningful but absorbable hit. The place has some non-homestead base to lean on. Mitigation is about steering future growth, not emergency response.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Palm Springs grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the primary engine of base growth in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity in the commercial and rental segments will matter more to Palm Springs’ non-homestead base than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This residency ramp cannot be read from the assessment roll, so the 19.3% and 13.1% figures above assume full application of the exemption to every qualifying homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in years where a meaningful share of new homesteaders are still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit any of these uses, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Maintain the balance deliberately, because it is what provides the cushion. Avoid letting residential growth outpace commercial and rental growth. Every approval cycle that adds owner-occupied single-family homes without a corresponding increment of commercial or rental development tilts the composition back toward the exempted category and erodes the buffer over time.
• Use the diversified base as a recruiting advantage. Palm Springs is a place that can absorb the amendment without a services crisis, and that is itself an economic-development signal worth communicating to businesses and developers evaluating locations. A city that enters 2027 with a functioning commercial and rental base is a more stable operating environment than one facing an emergency millage response.
• Target the next increment of growth toward whichever non-homestead category is thinnest. Industrial at 3.4% of value across only 27 parcels is the thinnest non-homestead category in the city’s roll. Attracting additional industrial or flex-industrial uses, particularly along arterial corridors or on the Other/Vacant parcels that currently represent 1.4% of value, would broaden the diversified base rather than tilting it back toward residential.
• Steer commercial, rental, and industrial growth into the established commercial core and corridors, where it reinforces the diversified base that provides the cushion. Infill and intensification along existing commercial frontage is more efficient for the tax base than greenfield residential expansion at the edges.

Watch-out: diversification erodes quietly if every approval is another subdivision. The city should maintain an explicit composition target, tracking the share of new taxable value coming from non-homestead categories each year, so the balance is a managed outcome rather than an accidental one.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for Palm Springs’ tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll actually affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at the full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are of residential housing units, not parcels. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida-owned, and it does not prove where any individual owner actually lives. It is the cleanest available stand-in for second-home and out-of-state investor ownership of housing, not a definitive residency determination.

This read is a land-use-composition starting point. It is not a comprehensive fiscal, economic, or legal analysis, and it is not a substitute for a full plan developed with local planners, legal counsel, and current budget data.

Place: Palm Springs Florida