Street Economics

Pembroke Pines, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Broward County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Pembroke Pines read

Pembroke Pines fits the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype. The base is owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property — this is the maximum-exposure profile, because almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, 32.3% of the city’s non-school taxable base is exposed; the 2027 step at $150,000 already removes 18.8%. The driver is straightforward: a high homestead share combined with a low commercial share means the exemption lands on nearly the whole base at once.

Of 64,365 residential housing units, 63.5% are owner-occupied, 12.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 24.2% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. Among Florida cities ranked by HJR 1 exposure, Pembroke Pines ranks 85 of 404. The 24.2% Florida-owned non-homestead share reflects a meaningful local rental market — landlords who are Florida residents rather than absentee out-of-state owners — and that segment is the city’s most immediate non-homestead cushion.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Pembroke Pines, 2025 roll:

Two figures in this table are worth noting. Nearly 70% of multifamily value and 46% of commercial value are held by out-of-state owners by parcel value, even though out-of-state ownership of residential units overall is only 12.3%. These are measured differently by design — the table is parcel-based within each land-use bucket, while the headline ownership split is unit-based across all residential housing — and both are correct on their own terms.

What the exposure band means

Band: High exposure. A large share of the base shifts. Diversification is the multi-year strategy; near-term, expect pressure to raise millage to hold services flat.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how the city grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main engine of base growth in these categories becomes transactions — a sale or change of control resets value to market — so transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that usually decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• With commercial at only 9.2% of total value, building a commercial and employment spine is the single highest-leverage move available to Pembroke Pines. Converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage — a neighborhood-serving retail node, a small office or medical-office cluster, or a light-flex business park on an arterial — adds non-homestead value that the amendment does not touch. The city should concentrate any new commercial and rental growth along an existing arterial or corridor rather than scattering it, so a real non-homestead spine forms in one place instead of staying thin everywhere.
• Multifamily rental is the second lever. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment, and well-sited rental near jobs and transit adds non-homestead taxable value while also addressing workforce housing demand. The 24.2% Florida-owned non-homestead residential share shows this market already exists in Pembroke Pines; the question is whether the city deepens it intentionally. Allowing additional rental density along the same corridors targeted for commercial growth compounds the effect.
• Industrial and commercial parcels should be prioritized for any future municipal growth rather than more subdivisions. Each new single-family subdivision adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover — that is the structural trap that created the exposure in the first place. Any existing employment anchor already in the city — a hospital, a college, a distribution facility, a government office complex — represents non-homestead taxable value already in place and worth protecting and intensifying.

Watch-out: do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one deepens the monoculture, adds exempt homestead value, and increases service demand that the remaining taxable base must carry.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are of residential housing units. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership — an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida — and it does not prove where an owner actually lives. This read is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Pembroke Pines, Florida