Street Economics

Winter Park, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Orange County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Winter Park read

Winter Park fits the Balanced / Diversified archetype: a genuine mix of residential, commercial, and other uses with no single category overwhelming the base, which is the healthiest profile a Florida city can carry into this amendment. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, 14.3% of the non-school taxable base is exposed; the 2027 step at $150,000 puts that figure at 7.8%. The residential share takes a hit, as it does everywhere, but the commercial and rental base cushions the blow and keeps the headline number well below the state average for cities of this type. Winter Park ranks 310 of 404 cities by exposure, meaning 309 cities face more pressure.

Of 14,455 residential housing units, 54.3% are owner-occupied, 7.6% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 38.2% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 38.2% Florida-owned non-homestead share is the structural story here: a large slice of the housing stock is held by in-state landlords and investors, not absentee out-of-state owners, and that rental base sits entirely outside the amendment’s reach. The out-of-state ownership figure at 7.6% is well below the threshold that would signal an absentee-ownership concern.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Winter Park, 2025 roll:

A few figures in the table are worth noting. Industrial, though small at 0.8% of total value, shows 35.9% of its value held by out-of-state owners, the highest out-of-state value concentration of any category. Commercial similarly shows 23.0% of its value in out-of-state hands despite only 7.7% of its parcels being out-of-state owned, which reflects larger-value properties in that ownership group. Multifamily at 18.2% of value out-of-state follows a similar pattern.

What the exposure band means

Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Winter Park grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can only rise 5% per year, the main engine of base growth in these categories shifts to transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value, so transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption to every homestead. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the uses described, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that usually decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Winter Park’s diversification is its primary asset and the reason its exposure number is low. The first priority is to maintain that balance deliberately, because it is what provides the cushion. Residential growth that outpaces commercial and rental growth quietly erodes the diversification over time, even when individual projects look benign.
• The diversified base is also a recruiting advantage that Winter Park can use actively. A city that can absorb the amendment without a services crisis is a more stable operating environment for businesses and investors than one facing a 30% or 40% exposure hit. That stability is itself an economic-development signal worth communicating to site selectors and developers.
• The next increment of growth should target whichever non-homestead category is thinnest. Industrial at 0.8% of total value and multifamily at 2.1% are the two thinnest categories in the current roll. Adding taxable value in either category broadens the base rather than tilting it back toward residential. Arterial corridors, underutilized commercial frontage, and any parcels currently sitting in the Other/Vacant bucket at 1.6% of value are the logical locations to absorb that growth without displacing the existing commercial core.
• Commercial at 14.5% of value is already a meaningful contributor and should be reinforced, not just maintained. Steering new commercial, rental, and industrial activity into established corridors and the downtown core keeps the diversified base deepening in the right direction.

Watchout: diversification erodes quietly if every approval is another subdivision. An explicit composition target, reviewed against the roll each year, is the discipline that keeps the balance from drifting.

Source and scope

All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected by the larger exemption is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential housing-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it identifies owners whose address on the roll shows a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida-owned, and it does not prove where any individual owner actually lives. This read is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: winter park, fl