Street Economics

Boca Raton, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Palm Beach County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Boca Raton read

Boca Raton carries the Bedroom Residential Monoculture archetype, which describes a base built on owner-occupied single-family housing at moderate value with thin commercial, industrial, or rental property. That profile is the maximum-exposure profile in theory: almost every dollar of value is the exact kind of property the amendment exempts, and stripping the homesteads leaves little taxable base behind. In Boca Raton’s case, however, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, the city’s exposure sits at 12.3%, with a 7.0% step at the $150,000 threshold in 2027. The city ranks 328 of 404 cities by exposure statewide, meaning it is among the less-exposed places in Florida.

The driver of that relatively low exposure is the ownership mix. Of 69,410 residential housing units, 49.0% are owner-occupied, 21.9% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 29.1% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 29.1% Florida-owned non-homestead share, combined with the out-of-state slice, means a substantial portion of the residential base is already outside the homestead exemption and therefore not directly hit by the amendment. High homestead share plus low commercial share is the formula that creates maximum exposure; Boca Raton’s relatively large non-homestead residential share provides structural insulation that keeps the headline figure in the low band.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Boca Raton, 2025 roll:

Residential value dominates at 73.7% of the roll, with commercial at 11.7% and multifamily at 4.7% providing the next largest shares. Two figures in the out-of-state columns stand out: 60.8% of multifamily value and 40.3% of commercial value are out-of-state owned by parcel value, even though those categories’ parcel counts show much lower out-of-state shares. That gap between parcel share and value share signals that the out-of-state-owned properties in those categories tend to be the larger, higher-value assets.

What the exposure band means

Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how the base grows after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial, industrial, and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value, so transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth than it did under the old cap.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it all at once. This residency ramp cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Recruit and zone for a commercial and employment spine. At 11.7% of roll value, commercial is present but not dominant. The single highest-leverage move is converting a share of future growth from rooftops to taxable commercial square footage that carries no homestead exemption. A neighborhood-serving retail node, a small office or medical-office cluster, or a light-flex business park on an arterial are the right targets. Concentrating that growth along an existing arterial or corridor rather than scattering it lets a real non-homestead spine form in one place instead of staying thin everywhere.
• Capture multifamily rental as taxable base. Apartments pay full freight under the amendment. At 4.7% of roll value, multifamily is a relatively small share of the Boca Raton base. Allowing well-sited rental near jobs and transit adds non-homestead value and workforce housing at the same time. The 60.8% out-of-state ownership share of multifamily value is a signal worth watching: it means the city’s rental base is heavily held by outside investors, which is a housing-affordability question as much as a fiscal one.
• Protect and intensify any existing employment anchor. Hospitals, colleges, distribution facilities, and government offices are the non-homestead taxpayers already in place. These are the assets that hold the base steady while longer-term diversification plays out.
• Prioritize commercial and industrial parcels for future municipal growth rather than more subdivisions. Any expansion of the city’s footprint that adds commercial or industrial square footage deepens the non-homestead base; any expansion that adds single-family subdivisions deepens the monoculture.

Watch-out: do not solve a revenue hole by approving more single-family subdivisions. Each one adds homestead value the amendment will exempt while adding service demand the millage must cover. That is the trap that created the exposure in the first place, and it is the one move that makes the structural problem worse rather than better.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state mailing address counts as Florida, and it does not prove where an owner actually lives. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Boca Raton