Street Economics

Stuart, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Martin County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Stuart read

Stuart is a Commercial / Employment Anchor — real commercial depth carrying a substantial share of value, whether that is retail, office, medical, or a downtown core. That profile is the most insulated productive profile in the state.

At full phase-in in 2028, Stuart’s HJR 1 exposure sits at 16.8% of its non-school taxable base, with a 11.4% step at the 2027 threshold. The exposure is low because commercial property carries no homestead exemption — every commercial dollar is a dollar the amendment cannot touch, and commercial accounts for 20.7% of Stuart’s total just value. Among ranked Florida cities, Stuart ranks 288 of 404 by exposure, meaning most cities face more pressure than Stuart does.

Of 15,637 residential housing units, 43.8% are owner-occupied, 23.6% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 32.6% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. The Florida-owned non-homestead share — 32.6% — is the larger of the two non-homestead segments, which reads as a local and in-state rental market rather than an absentee-ownership story. That rental base is itself a structural buffer: rental units carry no homestead exemption and are unaffected by the amendment.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Stuart, 2025 roll:

The industrial and multifamily categories show notably high out-of-state value shares (43.3% and 37.7% respectively) despite modest parcel counts, which signals that the out-of-state ownership in those categories is concentrated in higher-value properties. Agricultural parcels represent a negligible share of value and are omitted from strategic discussion.

What the exposure band means

Band: Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how Stuart grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial, industrial, and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions — a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth under the new cap than it did under the old one.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This residency ramp cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the described uses, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Stuart’s commercial base is the asset doing the insulating, and the first priority is to defend and deepen it. Reinvesting in the commercial corridor and downtown directly — through infill, upper-floor uses, and denser frontage — keeps the non-homestead base growing without relying on categories the amendment touches. Intensifying existing commercial frontage is more durable than adding new homestead residential, and it compounds over time.
• Adding multifamily rental near the commercial core serves two purposes: it houses the workforce that keeps the commercial base functioning, and it adds taxable rental value that the amendment does not reach. Multifamily currently accounts for 6.4% of Stuart’s just value across 103 parcels — there is room to grow that share without displacing the commercial anchor.
• Recruiting traded-sector employers — logistics, back-office operations, light manufacturing — broadens the base beyond retail and reduces dependence on consumer spending cycles. Industrial currently represents only 2.9% of just value across 188 parcels, and the category’s high out-of-state value share (43.3%) suggests that when industrial assets do trade, they attract outside capital. Deepening that pipeline on the employment side adds durable, non-homestead taxable value.

Watch-out: the risk for a Commercial / Employment Anchor is not the amendment — it is single-tenant or single-sector dependence. Value concentration in a few large commercial owners means a vacancy, a redevelopment pause, or a sector downturn can move the needle on the tax base faster than any policy change. Monitor ownership concentration in the commercial category and prioritize diversification of tenants and uses within the corridor, not just growth in aggregate square footage.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for Stuart’s tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll (the $150,000 step), followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership — an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida — and it does not prove where an owner actually lives. It is the cleanest available stand-in for second-home and out-of-state investor ownership of housing, not a definitive residency determination.

This read is a land-use-composition starting point. It is not a comprehensive fiscal, economic, or legal analysis, and it is not a substitute for a full planning or financial assessment.

Place: Stuart, fl