Street Economics

Longwood, Florida

HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure

Seminole County . 2025 final assessment roll

Snapshot

The Longwood read

Longwood fits the Residential Commuter archetype: residential-dominant like a classic bedroom community, but with a larger renter or out-of-state share and a lower homestead rate than a pure owner-occupied suburb, leaving it somewhat less concentrated in owner-occupied primary residence. At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, 24.4% of Longwood’s non-school taxable base is exposed to the new exemption, with a 16.3% hit at the 2027 $150,000 step. Exposure is meaningful but buffered by the non-homestead residential share — renters and second homes — that continues paying under the amendment. Longwood ranks 178 of 404 cities statewide by exposure, placing it in the middle of the distribution.

Of 8,138 residential housing units, 52.5% are owner-occupied, 15.9% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 31.4% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. That 31.4% Florida-owned non-homestead share is the structural cushion here: it represents local landlords and in-state second-home owners whose properties the amendment does not touch, and it is a meaningful portion of the residential base. The out-of-state ownership figure at 15.9% is below the threshold that would signal an absentee-ownership concern, so the rental market reads primarily as a Florida-owned local rental market rather than an absentee-driven one.

Land-use composition

Share of taxable value by category, Longwood, 2025 roll:

Two figures in this table stand out. Multifamily parcels have 54.3% of their value owned by out-of-state owners, even though only 10.3% of multifamily parcels are out-of-state owned — meaning a small number of large out-of-state-held apartment properties account for a disproportionate share of that category’s assessed value. Industrial shows a similar pattern: 14.3% of parcels are out-of-state owned but those parcels hold 40.5% of industrial value. These are parcel-based figures measured within each land-use category and are separate from the unit-based ownership shares in the snapshot above.

What the exposure band means

Moderate exposure. A meaningful but absorbable hit. The place has some non-homestead base to lean on. Mitigation is about steering future growth, not emergency response.

Looking ahead

Neither of the following changes the exposure figure above; both shape how Longwood grows its base after the amendment takes effect.

First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can only rise 5% per year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth under the tighter cap than it did before.

Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application of the exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.

Where the opportunity is

These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the use, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.

• Longwood’s 31.4% Florida-owned non-homestead residential share confirms that rental is already part of the city’s DNA. The first move is to lean into that: zone for more multifamily and missing-middle rental product. Multifamily is taxable in full, the amendment does not touch it, and Longwood already has the market signal — 10.2% of total assessed value sits in 234 multifamily parcels, a meaningful base to build from. Concentrating new rental development on one corridor or node rather than scattering it lets infrastructure and demand reinforce each other and makes the non-homestead base denser where it counts.
• The second move is to build out the commercial and services base. Commercial accounts for 11.5% of Longwood’s assessed value across 389 parcels — present but thin relative to the residential mass. Residents who commute out to work and shop elsewhere are exporting taxable commercial activity. Capturing some of that spending and employment locally converts bedroom function into daytime economy and adds non-homestead commercial value the amendment cannot reach. Existing arterial frontage and any underutilized commercial corridors are the logical targets.
• Industrial is already Longwood’s second-largest value category at 13.8% of assessed value across 245 parcels, and 40.5% of that value is out-of-state owned — meaning it is already attracting outside capital. Employers who want a workforce-adjacent location are a natural fit: Longwood already houses commuters, so adding where they work deepens the non-homestead base without requiring a new residential draw.

Watch-out: resist the instinct to chase only owner-occupied move-up housing for its image. It is the most exposed category under HJR 1. Mixed-tenure growth — rental, commercial, and industrial alongside ownership housing — is the more resilient path for Longwood’s tax base.

Source and scope

All figures are computed from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used as a structural proxy for Longwood’s tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 exemption step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, this analysis re-runs on the new data.

Ownership shares are measured on a residential housing-unit basis. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy: it counts units whose owner’s mailing-address state in the roll is a non-Florida state or country. It undercounts true outside ownership — an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC address counts as Florida — and it does not prove where an owner actually lives. This read is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.

Place: Longwood, FL