Street Economics
Orlando, Florida
HJR 1 Homestead-Exemption Tax-Base Exposure
Snapshot
| HJR 1 exposure at full $250,000 phase-in (2028) | 12.0% |
| Exposure at the $150,000 step (2027) | 7.1% |
| Exposure band | Low exposure |
| Total parcels | 112,569 |
| Total residential housing units | 160,689 |
| Owner-occupied (homestead) units | 28.4% |
| Out-of-state owned units | 32.3% |
| Florida-owned non-homestead units | 39.4% |
| Archetype | Renter-Heavy |
The Orlando read
Orlando fits the Renter-Heavy archetype. A majority of the residential housing is not owner-occupied: 55% or more of units are rentals or second homes, and owner-occupancy is a minority of the housing stock. Most of the non-owner stock is owned by Floridians, meaning in-state landlords and second-home owners, so this is substantially a local-ownership rental market rather than a purely absentee one. That tenure structure is the primary reason HJR 1 exposure runs low: the amendment only helps homestead owners, and most units here are non-homestead.
At full $250,000 phase-in in 2028, Orlando’s exposure sits at 12.0% of its non-school taxable base. The 2027 step at $150,000 registers at 7.1%. Exposure runs lower than a homeowner town because the amendment only helps homestead owners and most units here are non-homestead. The insulation is real, but it reflects a community where most residents rent rather than own, not a community that has built exceptional fiscal diversification.
Of 160,689 residential housing units, 28.4% are owner-occupied, 32.3% are owned by out-of-state owners, and 39.4% are non-homestead but Florida-owned. Among Florida’s ranked cities, Orlando ranks 331 of 404 by exposure, placing it well toward the low end of the statewide distribution.
Notable signal: about 32.3% of the city’s residential units are owned by out-of-state owners. That is a genuinely elevated share and is distinct from the high renter share. Orlando carries both: most residents rent, and a significant portion of the housing stock is held by owners whose mailing address is outside Florida. These are two separate dynamics, and both deserve attention on housing affordability and ownership grounds, independent of the fiscal read.
Land-use composition
Share of taxable value by category, Orlando, 2025 roll:
| Land-use category | Share of value | % of parcels out-of-state | % of value out-of-state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Govt/Public | 21.1% | 8.2% | 14.4% |
| Residential | 38.7% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
| Commercial | 18.6% | 13.1% | 29.7% |
| Multifamily | 11.3% | 21.5% | 65.0% |
| Industrial | 7.2% | 25.3% | 56.9% |
| Other/Vacant | 1.0% | 9.0% | 19.9% |
| Institutional | 1.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% |
| Agricultural | 0.8% | 12.8% | 6.6% |
Two figures in the multifamily and industrial rows stand out. Out-of-state owners hold 65.0% of multifamily value and 56.9% of industrial value in Orlando, even though their parcel counts in those categories are 21.5% and 25.3% respectively. That gap between parcel share and value share signals that out-of-state ownership in those categories is concentrated in larger, higher-value assets.
What the exposure band means
Exposure band: Low exposure. The base is already substantially non-homestead. The amendment is a manageable headwind. Focus on protecting the diversified base that provides the insulation.
Looking ahead
Neither of the following changes the exposure figures above; both shape how Orlando grows its base after the amendment takes effect.
First, beginning January 1, 2027, the annual assessment-increase cap on non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%, covering commercial and industrial real property and small residential rentals of nine units or fewer. Because a capped property’s assessed value can rise only 5% per year, the main path to growing taxable value in these categories is transactions: a sale or change of control resets the property to market value. Transaction velocity matters more to non-homestead base growth under the new cap than it did under the old one, and that dynamic is especially relevant in a city where out-of-state owners hold a large share of multifamily and industrial value.
Second, new Florida residents who did not maintain a Florida permanent residence as of December 31, 2026 phase into the larger exemption over five years rather than receiving it immediately. This cannot be read from the assessment roll, so all exposure figures here assume full application, meaning every homestead receives the full exemption. Near-term exposure could run slightly lower than modeled in places with many recent arrivals still inside their five-year window.
Where the opportunity is
These recommendations are based solely on the tax roll’s land-use composition. They do not account for whether local land development regulations and zoning permit the uses described, whether there is local obstruction, or the political dynamics that typically decide what actually gets approved. This is a starting point for a conversation, not a development plan.
- Growing taxable commercial, light-industrial, and employment-generating value is the most direct lever. Orlando’s commercial sector already represents 18.6% of just value and its industrial sector 7.2%, both meaningful but with room to expand.
- Directing commercial and employment-use growth to existing corridors and the commercial core, rather than scattering it, concentrates taxable value where infrastructure already supports it.
- Supporting deed-restricted and well-managed rental and missing-middle housing is consistent with both the fiscal and community picture. Rental is non-homestead and already the dominant tenure in Orlando, so adding well-managed rental supply adds taxable base without displacing residents.
- Where resident stability and ownership are goals, any push toward owner-occupied housing should be paired with anti-displacement measures and treated as a community-values decision rather than a tax-base move. New owner-occupied homestead housing is the one category the amendment exempts, so it does not strengthen the non-homestead base.
Watch-out: Orlando is renter-heavy with mostly Florida landlords in the parcel count, but out-of-state owners hold a disproportionate share of multifamily and industrial value. Do not describe the city simply as a local rental market or as an absentee-owned one; the picture is layered. High rental share at modest owner-occupancy levels still usually signals an affordability and local-wealth issue, not a tax-base achievement, and that framing should anchor any policy conversation that follows from this read.
Source and scope
All figures are drawn from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 final assessment roll, the most recent certified roll in the state’s possession. The roll is used here as a structural proxy for tax-base composition, not as a dollar forecast for any specific budget year. HJR 1 / CS-HJR 1F is on the November 2026 ballot; the 2026 roll is the assessment roll in place when voters decide. If the amendment passes, the first roll affected by the larger exemption is the 2027 roll at the $150,000 step, followed by the 2028 roll at full $250,000 phase-in. When the 2026 and later rolls are certified, the analysis re-runs on the new data.
Ownership shares are measured on a residential-unit basis: each homestead-eligible parcel counts as one unit and each multifamily parcel counts by its number of apartment units. The out-of-state ownership figure is a mailing-address proxy; it undercounts true outside ownership because an out-of-state owner using an in-state LLC mailing address counts as Florida-owned, and it does not prove where an owner actually resides. This is a land-use-composition starting point, not a full fiscal, economic, or legal analysis.
Place: orlando florida
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